tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4266300416434206693.post5266115444823613504..comments2023-08-11T12:04:42.077+02:00Comments on The Church of Rationality: While We're Talking about Side Effects...LemmusLemmushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00917054221547240969noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4266300416434206693.post-5469428119381072942008-07-31T18:47:00.000+02:002008-07-31T18:47:00.000+02:00I've actually done a meta-analysis on a drug where...I've actually done a meta-analysis on a drug where we had to include a death in the drug group in our analysis of adverse events even though it was quite clearly not due to the drug (a skin cream).pjhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06832177812057826894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4266300416434206693.post-14491624126310114762008-07-31T14:50:00.000+02:002008-07-31T14:50:00.000+02:00Yup, people are bad with numbers, hence I suggest ...Yup, people are bad with numbers, hence I suggest verbal descriptions plus numbers - then everybody can pick and choose.<BR/><BR/>"I <I>think</I> they found that things like '1 in 100' (rather than 1%) were best understood."<BR/><BR/>I don't remember that bit (and maybe they are different studies), but I'd put money on this prediction. If I remember correcly, another study I can't cite found that a substantial number of participants understood 20% to mean "one in twenty".<BR/><BR/>Gerd Gigerenzer and colleagues studied <I>probabilities</I> versus what he calls "natural frequencies" (e.g., "8 in 1000") in the context of Bayesian reasoning and found that natural frequencies work much better. His explanation for this is that probability theory was only invented 300 years (or so) ago, whereas we're probably adapted to thinking in natural frequencies.<BR/><BR/>"Often when they say that there are 'very rare' cases of X it means that only one or two people had the side effect and they don't really think it was due to the drug, but it was serious so they ought to cover themselves."<BR/><BR/>That's pretty much what I heard about the German situation. This has even led to a sort-of-joke in Germany: "Side effects: Spontaneously occuring death."LemmusLemmushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00917054221547240969noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4266300416434206693.post-45420799020172476762008-07-31T13:21:00.000+02:002008-07-31T13:21:00.000+02:00Unfortunately people are bad with numbers as well....Unfortunately people are bad with numbers as well. I <I>think</I> they found that things like '1 in 100' (rather than 1%) were best understood. Often when they say that there are 'very rare' cases of X it means that only one or two people had the side effect and they don't really think it was due to the drug, but it was serious so they ought to cover themselves.<BR/><BR/>When there is convincing evidence for a serious side effect doctors usually tell you to look out for it.pjhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06832177812057826894noreply@blogger.com