Around the Blogs, Vol. 59: An Andrew Gelman Special

1. A hole in Tyler Cowen's argument about threshold earners.

2. "Even if you're a heavy smoker, your chance of dying of lung cancer is not 50 per cent, so therefore, even with something as extreme as smoking and lung cancer, you still have lots of cases where people don't die of the disease. The evidence is certainly all around you pointing in the wrong direction." The statistics of anecdotal evidence.