29/04/2008

This Post Does Not Argue You Should Drive Your Car More

Seth Roberts links to this:
Disconcerting as it may be to true believers in global warming, the average temperature on Earth has remained steady or slowly declined during the past decade, despite the continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, and now the global temperature is falling precipitously.

All four agencies that track Earth's temperature (the Hadley Climate Research Unit in Britain, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, the Christy group at the University of Alabama, and Remote Sensing Systems Inc in California) report that it cooled by about 0.7C in 2007. This is the fastest temperature change in the instrumental record and it puts us back where we were in 1930. If the temperature does not soon recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over.
I am completely ignorant about geophysics. I have always believed the standard global warming view solely on the basis of the "trust the expert" heuristic.

But think about it: If your doctor tells you you should really, really get that test that's going to make him a lot of money, do you necessarily believe him? If the car mechanic says you need this expensive repair, will you trust him? And do geophysicists not have an interest to rake in lots of public recognition and research funding?

I am not saying the standard story is wrong. I am saying I was being naive.

2 comments:

Professor Vic said...

Since you're a frequent commenter on the Sports Economist, I thought I would check out your blog.

This one struck me. I couldn't independently verify the information. According to Goddard (http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/), worldwide temperatures rose slightly compared to 2006 and were the second highest on record. I didn't check out the other sources of temeperature data.

Let's just hope that global warming doesn't lead to the end of the promotion/relegation system!

LemmusLemmus said...

Heh!

You could easily see it: Owners getting hot under the collar, etc.

Seriously, I have not checked out any of the sources and I don't even know how you calculate "global warming". It must be some sort of average, but what to average?

As I said, I'm ignorant about geophysics.